鉅亨網記者陳慧菱 台北英國硬脫歐、義大利債信評等再遭調降,甫進入 2017 年,全球就迎來諸多政治經濟的不確定因素,導致黃金價格一路升破每盎司 1,200 美元,半個月漲幅逾 6%。預期川普行情之後,隨著 3 月將到來的德國及荷蘭選舉,加上義大利債務風險大增,金價的漲勢有望延續。鉅亨網投顧指出,在政治經濟風險攀高的情況下,用來?量全球經濟政策不確定性的指數也攀升道歷史新高的水準。先從今年狀況連連的歐洲來看,根據彭博資訊系統,義大利目前公司及政府未償債務總額為 3.16 兆美元,佔 GDP 比重高達 153.5%,龐大的債務讓義大利企業及政府無法透過新增融資方式提高投資。單是今年,義大利債務到期金額為 5,581 億美元,佔總債務比例的 17.7%,義大利政府及企業本來就面臨發債成本上升的壓力,日前又遭 DBRS 調降評等,今年發債成本恐繼續攀升,並為本就混亂的義大利政府及企業帶來更多壓力。鉅亨網投顧進一步指出,從歐洲央行宣佈購債計畫開始,歐洲央行便跟上日本央行的腳步,成為歐洲政府公債及投資等級債券市場的重大玩家。義大利公司及政府於 2016 年共發行 6,627 億歐元的債券,其中符合歐洲央行購債條件的金額為 2,700 億歐元,而歐洲央行購買其中的 1,203 億歐元,若歐洲央行退出購買,將為義大利政府及企業帶來更大衝擊,也凸顯出歐洲市場的金融風險持續升溫。鉅亨網投顧總經理朱挺豪表示,從全球角度觀察,目前投資人最關注的莫過於美國新任總統川普就職後的政策方向。儘管目前市場傾向美國將擴張性財政政策,進而為全球經濟成長帶來外溢效果,達到提升全球風險性資產價格的結果。但世界銀行指出,全球經濟政策不確定性持續走高,美歐日等國的經濟政策都充滿不確定性。根據過往經驗,當全球經濟政策不確定性上升時,黃金價格往往跟隨上漲,在歐洲選舉及新興市場債務都可能影響政策下,黃金價格仍有上漲空間。

2017-01-2003:00

‘PEACEFUL’: The KMT vice chairman expressed support for unification with China, saying that it would occur when both sides are free, democratic and prosperousBy Stacy Hsu / Staff reporterChinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Vice Chairman Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) yesterday dismissed speculation that he is planning to take a back seat to former vice president Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) to increase Wu’s chance of winning the party’s chairperson election in May.Hau made the remarks during an interview at Taipei-based Pop Radio, in which he was quizzed about the KMT’s May 20 chairperson election and his future endeavors.“Regarding allegations that I might withdraw from the race because of Wu, that is definitely not the case,” said Hau, who announced his bid earlier this month. “All candidates should know that we should all give our all and must not engage in any match-fixing attempts. I hope this race can change the KMT’s ‘fixer culture.’”Speculation about Hau’s potential withdrawal emerged after he pledged in his candidacy announcement to withdraw from the election if a candidate would promise not to use the leadership post as a stepping stone for their political career and help find the best candidates for next year’s local elections and the 2020 presidential race.Asked whether his ultimate plan is to run for a mayoral post in the local elections, Hau said all that matters is finding good candidates who have a good chance of winning.Separately yesterday, Hau expressed his support for “peaceful cross-strait unification” during a telephone interview with Hong Kong-based Phoenix Television, stressing that by “peaceful” he meant no one would be compelled.The unification Taiwan hopes for is one that occurs when both sides of the Taiwan Strait are free, democratic and prosperous, Hau said, adding that no timeline should be placed on the issue.Asked whether he acknowledges that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are part of “one China,” he said Beijing should first face up to the existence of the Republic of China.“The ‘1992 consensus’ and the ‘one China, different interpretations’ formula are the maximum consensus among the 23 million people of Taiwan,” Hau said, adding that the KMT has also supported stable and friendly cross-strait interactions.The “1992 consensus” refers to a tacit understanding between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party that both sides of the Taiwan Strait acknowledge there is “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what “China” means. Former Mainland Affairs Council chairman Su Chi (蘇起) in 2006 said that he made up the term in 2000.Additional reporting by Shih Hsiao-kuan新聞來源:TAIPEI TIMES











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生活中心/台北報導

真的要冷了!強烈大陸冷氣團在24節氣「大寒」今天(20日)南下,各地愈晚愈冷,民眾下班、放學後可明顯感受降溫;中央氣象局也持續發布全台18縣市發布「陸上強風特報」。氣象專家李富城在臉書說,早上台北有15度,傍晚下班剩9度。

▲強烈大陸冷氣團報到,各地愈晚愈冷。(圖/翻攝「福爾摩莎氣象萬千」臉書粉專)

中央氣象局表示,北台灣19日深夜開始,氣溫逐漸下降,今晨約14至16度,白天持續降溫,夜晚就有機會出現12、12度;其他地區清晨低溫約16至19度,中午在陽光照射下仍可到達20至26度,而下半天隨冷空氣南下,氣溫也會逐步下滑,晚上回家時可能會比早上出門時更覺有涼意。

氣象局指出,此波強烈大陸冷氣團預計將影響到下周二(24日)清晨,這段期間除冷空氣的影響,輻射冷卻效應也相當明顯,夜晚及清晨台南以北沿海及空曠地區易出現近10度低溫。

▼台北傍晚體感溫將剩9度。(圖/資料照/記者李鍾泉攝)

氣象局說,降雨方面,19日晚間至今上半天水氣增加,迎風面的北部、東半部地區降雨較明顯,下半天逐漸趨緩,由於此波冷空氣帶來的水氣並不多,其他地區均為多雲到晴的天氣。

李富城在臉書表示,台北早上有15度,傍晚下班時剩9度;寒流來襲,未來幾天,台灣北部進入寒冬天氣,平均溫度低於14度。李富城說,天氣方面還算乾爽,僅基隆北海岸及蘭陽平原會下一點雨,「台北東區9點前也會濕淋淋的」。根據氣象局預測,台北市各區今傍晚6時氣溫是13度,信義區則只有12度,體感溫度9度。

「福爾摩莎氣象萬千」臉書粉專發文說,北部、東北部今早就會感到冷颼颼,但此時溫度可能還是最高的,預計越晚越冷;中部一早也會感受到寒意,白天因有陽光照射降溫幅度不會像北部那麼大,但接近放學下班時間溫度會快速下降;南部及台東今早還不會感受到寒冷,白天會比19日涼爽許多,但放學下班入夜後溫度也將明顯下降。

「福爾摩莎氣象萬千」指出,預計各地最冷的時間將落在今晚到周六(21日)天清晨,台南以北低溫約10到12度,西北部、北部沿海陸地更可能出現「入冬首度個位數的低溫」。

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